Jerry Manuel is a liar

February 18th, 2011

Manuel responded on television, saying,  “We allowed the fewest baserunners and then threw out the most base runners. So there you go, Ozzie. But what you got to do Ozzie, you got to teach me how to tweet so I can get back to you. You don’t have to put me on blast.’’

David Lennon, Newsday

Leave it to Jerry Manuel to pull this website out of retirement.

Let’s start with the obvious: if the New York Mets had allowed the fewest baserunners in baseball AND threw out the most base runners, I don’t think Jerry Manuel would currently be an analyst for MLB Network. It’s also safe to assume that Sandy Alderson would still be working in the MLB front offices, the Mets would be the defending World Series champions, and would be generating so much money, Fred Wilpon wouldn’t have to explore selling the team because he’d be making a mint off of ticket sales and merchandise right now. Right off the bat, this one doesn’t come close to passing the smell test.

And of course, Jerry Manuel is wrong. The Mets did not, in fact, allow the fewest baserunners in baseball last year, or any year in which he was the manager. Take a look at the tables below. First, we’ll start with the 2008 Mets.

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Chris Carter Non-Tendered

December 3rd, 2010

Per Adam Rubin on Twitter, the Mets have announced that Chris Carter has not been tendered a contract for 2011.

We’ll deal with what this means for the 2011 Mets tomorrow.  I know a lot of you love the guy, so this thread is for you to say goodbye.

The Minaya Years – 2005 Outfield

October 6th, 2010

Now that Omar Minaya is officially out as the Mets’ GM, this is no longer a pre-post-mortem, but a mere post-mortem on the career of Omar Minaya and the job he did as Mets GM.  What were his strengths, what were his weaknesses, and what were his patterns, and how can the next GM improve upon his performance.  Let’s take a look at the first outfield he constructed, the 2005 Mets starting outfield.

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Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel “relieved of duties”

October 4th, 2010

Mets fans, meanwhile, are merely relieved.

Seriously, not to piss on their graves or anything, but Minaya and Manuel very clearly needed to go.  I’ll talk more about Omar as the weeks progress as I continue to look at the Minaya Years, but it was clearly beyond his capabilities to build a successful baseball team on a consistent basis.  He simply was not the right man for this job, and was a perfect example of the Peter Principle at work.

Jerry Manuel…I think this blog has made its feelings clear on Jerry Manuel, but yesterday’s game really demonstrated why he’s not a very good manager.  Taking David Wright and Jose Reyes out of the game in the top of the 9th inning of a tie game, so they can get a standing ovation as they walked off the field, really showed a lack of priorities.  The game went an additional five innings before it ended, and perhaps if the Mets had their best hitters still in the game, it would not have lasted as long.

Really, I can think of no better way for the 2010 season, for the Jerry Manuel era, and for the Omar Minaya regime, to all come to simultaneous conclusion than by Oliver Perez giving up a HBP and three consecutive walks to give the Nationals the victory.  I think that pretty much sums it up.

The Minaya Years series will continue tomorrow, and as news breaks regarding potential successors, we will discuss it here at Blue and Orange.

The Minaya Years: 2005 Bullpen

October 1st, 2010

Part two of our look at Omar Minaya’s various teams will look at the 2005 Mets relief corps.  In case you missed yesterday’s post, this is an objective look at the various moves made by Omar Minaya to try to find what we can learn from his moves, both good and bad.  I started with the 2005 starting rotation, now I am going to take a look at Omar’s first bullpen as the general manager of the Mets.

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The Minaya Years: 2005 Starting Pitching

September 30th, 2010

With Omar Minaya’s days as general manager numbered, I thought now would be as good a time as any to try to take an objective look at the various Mets teams he has assembled during his days as GM.  This isn’t another excuse to tear Minaya down, it’s a way to look at what he did, to identify his good moves and his mistakes, and how future Mets GMs may learn from them.  In order to give a thorough examination for every aspect of the teams he has built, I am going to be breaking each team into small parts, and from there piecing these small parts together until we have a big picture.  The first thing I am going to examine is Omar Minaya’s 2005 starting pitchers.

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Jerry Manuel is Smart

August 29th, 2010

I was just listening to the Mets Extra pre-game show on WFAN and heard this gem from Jerry Manuel on his manager’s show (paraphrased):

Chris Carter is going to play in left field. It’s always tough to get him in there with Dickey on the mound because of the fly balls.

R.A. Dickey came into Sunday’s start with a 54.1% ground ball rate.

BONUS MANUEL

Luis Hernandez pinch hit for Ruben Tejada in the ninth inning of Saturday’s game. Hernandez is 26 with an MiLB triple-slash of .255/.302/.311.  Middle infield prospect Tejada owns a .273/.343/.353 line, despite being criminally young for every level he’s played.

The K-Rod fiasco

August 13th, 2010

Once again the NY Mets have made the news. This time it wasn’t for a terrible, painful, excruciating, heart-wrenching loss. No it wasn’t for a Mets pitcher being accused of raping a woman on a golf course. No, it wasn’t a vote of support for the manager or the GM. This time it was for their closer punching out his girlfriend’s father after a loss. Most of us already hate K-rod. He has blown way too many games already this year and last year. Every time he comes in, he finds a way to scare the piss out of you. Now he’s a criminal so we can hate him more.

 

The Mets fined K-rod $125,000 for his actions in the family room at Citi Field after Wednesday’s bullpen blow-up loss after yet another fine performance by Jon Niese. Whatever may have happened behind closed doors, K-rod’s behavior is inexcusable. You can’t behave like that in front of your team mates and their families. I really  hope Bud Selig suspends him for his reckless behavior and the Citi Field faithful boo him more than they already do in future games.

Suckond Base

August 5th, 2010

The offensive output from Mets’ second basemen has been pretty dreadful.  This should really come as no surprise to anybody who has watched a Mets game this year.  I’m not really going out on a limb by saying that Luis Castillo, Alex Cora, and Ruben Tejada have been bad hitters, this season.  The question I’m concerned with is, exactly how bad have they been in 2010?  How can we put their poor level of play in perspective?  Here’s an attempt to show just how badly they have hit this season.

After posting one of his best-ever line drive rates in 2009, Luis Castillo has crashed back down to Earth, hitting a career-high percentage of ground balls while hitting a career-low percentage of line drives.  The end result has been a .257 BABIP, which is about what you’d expect out of a player hitting line drives about 14.7% of the time. Castillo’s BABIP doesn’t usually stray too far from his batting average, as he pretty much always puts the ball in play; he rarely strikes out and never homers.  All told, Castillo has “produced” a .242/.336/.284/.620 line on the season.  This makes him the best hitting Mets second baseman by a fair margin this season.  For this production, Castillo will make $6 million this year.

Alex Cora is posting career-low totals in just about everything.  He’s struggling to hit above .200, he has provided no power to speak of (9 extra base hits in 187 PA), and he rarely walks.  This has produced a downright ugly .207/.265/.278/.543 line on the season.  His batted ball numbers are pretty consistent with his career lines, and yet he’s posted a career-low .226 BABIP, which does not vibe well with his line drive percentage, so it’s possible he’s due for an upturn in luck over the last two months. He’s still not going to get a whole lot better, and it’s borderline crazy that the team valued his contributions to be worth $2 million this season, with a vesting option for next season to add insanity on top of crazy.

I don’t want to rip Ruben Tejada, as he had no business being in the major leagues as a 20 year old.  He was overpromoted after injuries to Castillo and Jose Reyes forced the Mets to carry an extra middle infielder while Cora was forced into a starting role, which says more about the Mets’ depth issues in Buffalo than it does about Tejada’s own talents.  Still, it’s worth pointing out that Tejada has outhit Cora on the season with a .211/.297/.250/.547 line, though when there are several pitchers in the National League who have outhit Cora, I’m not sure if that’s anything worth bragging about.  

It is interesting to point out that despite a much better defensive reputation, it’s Tejada who has produced a negative UZR rating at second base this year, with a -1.5 in only 166 innings.  By comparison, Cora and Castillo have been about average defensively, with Cora producing a 1.3 UZR in 344 innings, and Castillo producing a 1.1 UZR in 438 innings.  Judging by my own eyes, though, I would like to see a larger sample size for both before conceding that either Cora or Castillo is a good defender.

Now that we’ve established that Castillo, Cora, and Tejada have been bad this year, let’s try to put thsi in perspective.  They are 26th in the majors in on-base percentage, thanks entirely to Luis Castillo’s batting eye, the one useful hitting skill held by a Mets’ second baseman. They are eleventh in walks, with Castillo leading the way (28 of their 42 walks came from him in roughly half their plate appearances). They are dead last in the majors in slugging percentage, ahead of only the sixth-best organization in baseball Seattle Mariners.  The Mets are the only team in baseball without so much as a single home run by a second baseman this season, and only two teams have fewer doubles this season than the Mets, which goes a long way towards explaining that league-low slugging percentage.

All told, Mets second basemen have produced a .232/.306/.289/.594 line on the season.  That .594 OPS is the worst in the major leagues at second base by over 30 points.  If you prefer more advanced statistics, their .273 wOBA, 8 points behind the 29th ranked Cubs.  That is a truly woeful wOBA.  Your eyes do not deceive you; Mets second basemen have been the worst hitting in the majors this season.  For the privilege, the Mets have paid $8 million, and are scheduled to spend another $8 million on the same cast of characters again next season.

To be fair, this isn’t the worst collective hitting performance by a team at a specific position this season.  The Mariners*, Nationals, Tigers, and Astros have had worse performances out of their catchers, the Mariners*, Astros, and Orioles have had worse performances out of their shortstops, the Mariners* and Angels have had worst performances from their third basemen, the Indians have seen their center fielders perform worse this season, and the Mariners* have gotten worse from their designated hitter spot.

* And you wonder why the #6org tag exists; that’s four separate positions where the Seattle Mariners have had worse offensive performances than 2010 Mets second basemen!

The front office simply cannot afford this type of production at second base again next season.  Most enlightened baseball fans felt that giving Luis Castillo $24 million over four seasons after the 2007 season was an unwise decision, as he was a no-power second baseman whose only skills at the time were legging out ground balls for base hits and batting eye, and he was gradually starting to lose his legs.  Today, his legs are gone and all that remains is the batting eye.  Whether it be Omar Minaya or (hopefully) somebody else, the team cannot afford to punt an entire position this badly next season.

Leave Castillo Be

August 4th, 2010

Luis Castillo shouldn’t be on this team. Three off-seasons ago when Ed Wade (who would’ve thought?) offered the then 32-year-old slap-hitter a three-year, $18 million to man the keystone in Houston, the Mets relationship with Luis should have ended right there. Say “thank you” and nab the compensation pick. Instead, Mets brass decided to not only match the offer, but enhance it by a guaranteed year.

Castillo’s profile was well-established at the time: outstanding contact hitter who uses speed to pile up infield hits; very disciplined at the plate; minimal power, but swings a stronger stick right-handed; an excellent bunter; a sure-handed second baseman with declining range. The Mets knew this and decided to lock him up anyway — until the age of 36! — when his knees threatened to deteriorate his already limited skills.

Still, I can’t help but feel sorry for Castillo sometimes — particularly, when he comes to the plate with a runner on second base. He takes his usual pitch or two or three, and generally finds himself ahead in the count. Almost on cue, one of Gary, Keith and Ron will complain about Castillo’s patience.

He takes the next pitch — either a ball or called strike on the corner.

“Luis has got to swing at that!”

Why? The man’s swung at 35.5 percent of pitches throughout his career. With that approach he’s hitting .291 with a .368 on-base percentage. That’s pretty good.

“With Castillo in the eight-hole, he’s got to look to drive in runs.”

Again, why? Luis often hits the ball so softly that he has a tough time driving in a runner in this instance. In 625 plate appearances in this situation, Castillo’s racked up 122 hits, yet has driven in just 52 runs. Meanwhile, he’s drawn 100 walks.

His mission in that situation, like in most, is to get on base. That’s what he’s always done. Castillo knows which pitches he can handle a lot better than Gary, Keith or Ron. Far be it for them, or anyone of us, to decide which pitches he should or shouldn’t swing at when he’s had a long, modestly successful career.

Look, Luis shouldn’t be on the team beyond this season. The Mets can’t suffer another year of his declining offensive production, speed and defense. But leave the man alone when he’s in the box. He knows what he’s doing.