Archive for the ‘Nelson Figueroa’ Category

The Mets Didn’t Figure

Thursday, April 8th, 2010

Carried away with Nelson Figueora’s background story and his desire to play for a team he rooted for, Mets fans and bloggers have been quick to overstate the impact of his DFA. Heath Bell 2.0, he’s not. Rather, Nelson is a fringe-average starter, who mixes an assortment of off-speed pitches with an 87 mile per hour fastball. Simply put a finesse pitcher who’s had more stops than the local ‘7’ train is hardly indispensable.

One could reasonably argue – though completely in vain – that Figueroa would be the third best pitcher on the Mets. Reality is that John Maine and Ollie Perez are making over $15 million this season to start games. Ryota Igarashi possesses a good splitter, Hisa Takahashi is left-handed and throws strikes and Fernando Nieve is younger and equipped with better stuff. The Mets preferring these pitchers is understandable, albeit a bit misguided.

What’s difficult to understand is how the Mets made it possible for Figueroa to go to a team they have designs on competing with – the Philadelphia Phillies. It’s clear that the Mets brain trust never intended to carry him on the 25-man roster, as evidenced by his inclusion in minor league spring games and various beat writer accounts throughout March. Management was content to place Nelson on waivers in hopes he’d slip through; however, his intentions were made clear: he would play in Japan before suffering another season in Buffalo.

So, why not attempt to deal him some place far away? With pitching attrition and uncertainty abound, Figueroa would’ve garnered interest from other clubs (he didn’t even make it out of NL waivers amidst roster crunch time). Hell, the Royals claimed Luis Mendoza and he’s barely AAA caliber.

This isn’t a replacement level pitcher. Figueroa’s average projection (see below) is a 4.45 FIP, which extrapolated over 150 innings, is worth 1.6 wins above replacement. Compare that with ~5.00 FIP projection for Phillies fifth starter  Jamie Moyer. Figgy supplanting Jamie Moyer would be a +1 win improvement (and +0.5 over Kyle Kendrick). In other words, Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel have done more to improve to Phillies than the Mets in 2010.

This brand of slipshod roster management is a patent of this regime. It’s the only intellectual property they own.

Nelson Figueroa IP FIP
2009 Season 70.1 4.31
2010 Bill James 53 4.42
2010 CHONE 155 4.38
2010 Marcel 83 4.47
2010 ZIPS 131.7 4.54
Average Projection   4.45
Jamie Moyer IP FIP
2009 Season 162 5.06
2010 Bill James 154 4.75
2010 CHONE 165 5.14
2010 Marcel 158 4.93
2010 ZIPS 173 4.98
Average Projection   4.95
Kyle Kendrick IP FIP
2009 Season 26.1 3.59
2010 Bill James 47 4.8
2010 CHONE 167 4.96
2010 Marcel 81 4.71
2010 ZIPS 173 4.82
Average Projection   4.77

The Chris Wilcox’s BlueAndorange.net Plan for 2010 – The Rotation

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

Fifth part of a series.  For my plan for catcher, the infield, the outfield, and the bullpen, click on over.

The last on-field part of this series will look at what might be the most difficult area to fix this offseason on the cheap, the rotation.  I’ve listed ways to fix first base, catcher, and the outfield without spending a ton of money, but because other teams overvalue the cost of starting pitching, it artificially raises the cost of obtaining a good pitcher.  That’s why it’s so important that the team work on developing pitching from within, with the hopes of churning out cheap starters year after year, and converting failed starting prospects into relievers to avoid offering closers $17.5 million vesting options.  Alas, I digress.

(more…)

The Chris Wilcox’s BlueAndOrange.net Plan for 2010 – The Bullpen

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

Fourth part of a series.  For my plan for catcher, the infield, and the outfield, click on over.

Unlike last season, the bullpen seems to be pretty uncomplicated going into next season, and I don’t foresee much change to come.  That’s probably a good thing, as under Omar Minaya, the Mets have blown way too much money trying to fix the bullpen since he took over as GM in 2004.  Most members of last year’s bullpen are under team control another season, so we should expect to see much the same cast of characters back in New York for 2010.

(more…)